IND vs NZ: The World Test Championship’s latest cycle, which started back at the end of the WTC back in 2023, where India lost their second consecutive final against Australia, has now reached its nearing end.
This time around in the WTC, only four of the top nine teams have their chances of reaching the final; still, many of the teams are eager to improve their performances in the competition. Currently, India, the two-time WTC finalist, is at the top of the points table; however, the real parameter of qualification, the PCT of India, is way ahead of its competitors.
Australia are currently the most likely team to make it to the WTC final, as they would be in the quest to defend their WTC title in 2025 at Lord’s. Teams like New Zealand, the first-ever winners of the WTC, as well as Sri Lanka and South Africa, are also in the quest to make it to their debut WTC final.
Let’s take a look at how every team can qualify for the WTC final:
India: India would still have the best possible PCT in the WTC points table; even if they lose the Border-Gavaskar Trophy by a margin of 3-1 to Australia after having won the New Zealand series by 3-0, they can go ahead into the WTC final with a healthy PCT of 65.78%.
Doors for any other team mostly open when Australia can have a clean sweep over Indians in the BGT, which sees a major drop in PCT while opening the gates for Sri Lanka. So India’s qualification chances are entirely dependent on at least a single win in the BGT.
Australia: The defending champions are not in the most comfortable position like India is, though they are yet to feature in 7-red ball matches under home as well as overseas conditions.
Their qualification chances are based on a win in the BGT with a margin of 3-1; at least if they draw the series with a 2-2 and can couple it with a 2-0 win over Sri Lanka, then they would still have chances to advance to the finals with some other results going in their favour.
However, if they result in draws in the BGT as well as the draw against Sri Lanka, it would hand them a major drop in PCT, and hence the likes of the next three following teams in the list would fancy their chances in the WTC.
Sri Lanka: Sri Lanka would first face the Proteas in the longest format of the game, and if they lose, they can end their hopes in the WTC. So only after a win against South Africa can they fancy their chances, while a draw that is backed with a whitewash over Australia can hand them some chances into the WTC final.
South Africa: If South Africa loses even one of their remaining matches, then they would depend on other teams to make it into the WTC final. If South Africa can manage to win only 4 of the 6 games, then they can easily be considered knocked off.
New Zealand: New Zealand cannot look to have any further losses in the WTC, as they can proceed only with clean sweeps in their next series that would follow. Even a draw against India can send the Blackcaps home since a whitewash against England would not be able to save them.
Remaining matches before the WTC Final 2025:
- India: 8 matches
- Australia: 7 matches
- Sri Lanka: 5 matches
- South Africa: 6 matches
- New Zealand: 6 matches