India Women began their campaign with a disappointing loss against the New Zealand women, who also made history with a win over India Women after years in the World Cup.
However, they advanced into commanding form as they earned a great win over arch-rivals Pakistan and were followed by another dominating win over Sri Lanka women, the Asia Cup champions. The win over the Lankan women gave them the higher net run rate over New Zealand, which in turn handed them the second spot in the points table.
With Lankan women out of contention for the semis having not won a single match, Pakistan women largely depend on two other teams in India and New Zealand women to return into contention.
After New Zealand’s latest win over Sri Lanka, there has been immense clarity on what intent either team shares upon qualification, as both India and New Zealand are looking to increase their run rate.
The Aussies are way ahead in run rate, and even if they lose their final match, they stay on top of the table and will advance to the playoffs; hence, the competition for another spot lies between India and New Zealand.
However, when the tougher challenge is concerned, India will have to face 6-time defending Champions Australia women in their final group stage match today, while New Zealand will face the likes of Pakistan women.
How can India or New Zealand qualify for the semi-finals?
Either India and New Zealand win, hence tying the points between India, Australia, and New Zealand on six points, where the Aussies would qualify owing to their high net run rate alongside the other team who would have the highest run rate.
Both India and New Zealand lose, Australia qualifies, and hence India, New Zealand, and Pakistan tied on points would have to depend on the higher net run rate for the only spot in the semis.
Either team from India or New Zealand loses their match while the other wins, thus helping the other team to qualify straight into the semi-finals with an easy 6 points.
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For the very first scenario, New Zealand will have to have a winning margin of more than 18 runs than India’s winning margin against Australia if both teams win their matches. For India, a win seems enough if New Zealand can’t manage the margin.
The second scenario seems far more complex; if India bats first and Kiwis chase, India wins by 1 run, then New Zealand would have to win by 14-15 balls remaining. If India can extend their win margin to 10-20 runs, then New Zealand would have to keep a 20-32 ball margin to lead their way into the semis.
India chases while New Zealand bats first; if India manages to win with no balls remaining, then New Zealand will have to secure a win by at least 20 runs. With India finishing their chase early on, tougher it gets for the Kiwis.
With both teams either batting first or chasing India’s win margin by 1, 10, or 20 runs, the Kiwis need a margin of 17, 28, or 38 runs to secure their position. If India ceases their chase within an over or two remaining, the Kiwis will have to end their match before 4 to 5-overs of the game.